Title:
A Policy-Oriented Reassessment of Bioenergy Potential Estimates
Author(s):
Searle, S.Y., Malins, C.J.
Document(s):
Paper
Abstract:
With legal mandates promoting biofuel production in several regions around the world, a growing interest in the future potential of bioenergy production is fueling a proliferation of modeling studies on global biomass availability. Understanding the potential for sustainable biomass availability is vital in setting an appropriate level of aspiration for future bioenergy targets, and in understanding the extent to which bioenergy can contribute to a low carbon energy system in the future. However, many of the existing modeling efforts utilize implausible assumptions, or assumptions that would likely imply environmentally unsustainable practices. Here, we review a number of key studies modeling future global bioenergy potential and their methodology. We identify realistic values for several key assumptions, and utilize these to suggest revised and less implausible results for the studies reviewed here. After an overall reassessment, we find that the realistic and sustainable potential of global primary bioenergy in 2050 may be about 100 EJ yr-1, which, converted to biofuel using current technology would be ~37 EJ yr-1. This finding suggests that current projections for biofuel demand in 2050 may be overly optimistic.
Keywords:
assessment, bioenergy, biomass, energy crops, sustainability, potential
Topic:
Biomass Resources
Subtopic:
Biomass potentials and biomass mobilisation
Event:
20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
1AO.9.1
Pages:
53 - 62
ISBN:
978-88-89407-54-7
Paper DOI:
10.5071/20thEUBCE2012-1AO.9.1
Price:
FREE
