Paper details

Title:

Spatial Modelling of Land Availability for Biomass Resources

Author(s):

van der Hilst, F., Verstegen, J.A., Karssenberg, D., Faaij, A.P.C.

Document(s):

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to develop a spatio­temporal land use change model in order to assess the developments in land availability for energy crops over time spatially explicitly. The land availability for the cultivation of dedicated energy crops is assessed taking into account developments in other land use functions such as food and livestock production and nature. The model is demonstrated for the land use developments within Mozambique for a Business as Usual (BAU) and a progressive scenario for the timeframe 2005­2030. The results show that in both scenarios there is a significant amount of land available for bioenergy crop production. The land availability is decreasing from 9.1 Mha in 2005 to 7.7 Mha in 2030 in the BAU scenario, due to an increasing demand for food and fodder on the one hand and low productivity growth on the other. In the progressive scenario, the land availability increases to 16.4 Mha in 2030. Although, in both scenarios a considerable amount of land could become available for energy crops, the decreasing potential in the BAU scenario indicates a higher competition for land in the future which could hamper the development of a sustainable large scale bioenergy sector in Mozambique. Therefore, a large scale sustainable bioenergy sector can only be established if it is developed simultaneously with a more productive and sustainable agricultural sector.

Keywords:

geographical information system (GIS), modelling, biomass potential, Mozambique

Topic:

Biomass Resources

Subtopic:

Modelling and costs of resources

Event:

19th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition

Session:

OD1.1

Pages:

235 - 237

ISBN-13:

978-88-89407-55-4

ISBN-10:

88-89407-55-7

Paper DOI:

10.5071/19thEUBCE2011-OD1.1

Price:

FREE