Title:
Prospects for the Evolution of Socioeconomic Indicators on the Brazilian Sugarcane and Ethanol Production over Next 20 Years
Author(s):
Cunha, M.P., Leal, M.R.L.V.
Document(s):
Paper
Abstract:
Since 1975, when the Brazilian national ethanol program (Proalcool) was launched, the crescent share of fuel ethanol as a partial substitute of gasoline has brought significant economic and environmental benefits for the country. Currently, the volume of fuel ethanol consumed in the domestic market already exceeds the volume of gasoline. Some studies indicate that domestic ethanol production to double by 2020, due to the expectations of maintaining price competitiveness of sugarcane ethanol to gasoline, the increase on flex fuel vehicles (FFV) sales (now already represent 90 % of new cars sold) and the prospects of increasing exports of this fuel. The purpose of this paper is to present estimates of the projections of Brazilian sugarcane and ethanol production socioeconomic indicators over next two decades, taking into account expected technological development for the sector (such as the introduction of mechanically harvested sugarcane without the previous burning and the prospects of 2nd generation), the expected changes related to the national energy matrix and the trajectories of the main macroeconomic variables. The estimates are made considering all direct and indirect effects on the supply chain, and for that, it was made use of input-output analysis.
Keywords:
bioethanol, sugar cane, sustainability, biofuels, socio-economic indicators, input-output analysis
Topic:
Biomass Policies, Markets and Sustainability
Subtopic:
Ethical and socio-economic impacts to sustainable biomass production
Event:
19th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
OC3.3
Pages:
2365 - 2369
ISBN-13:
978-88-89407-55-4
ISBN-10:
88-89407-55-7
Paper DOI:
10.5071/19thEUBCE2011-OC3.3
Price:
FREE
