Title:
Optimization of a Methanol-to-Olefins SAF Supply Chain via Bagasse and CO2 Valorization in Integrated Sugarcane Bioethanol Distilleries
Author(s):
Infante Cuan, J.E., Garcia, V.F., Palacios, R., Ensinas, A.V.
Document(s):
Paper
Abstract:
The aviation sector remains one of the most difficult segments of the global energy system to decarbonize due to its reliance on high-energy-density liquid fuels and the lack of scalable alternatives for long-haul operations. In this context, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are widely recognized as a key mitigation pathway. This study evaluates an integrated sugarcane-based biorefinery for the production of e-SAF in Brazil, combining bagasse thermochemical conversion, anaerobic digestion of vinasse, biogenic CO2 capture, and renewable hydrogen production via PEM electrolysis. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model was developed to maximise net present value over a 20-year horizon while meeting projected SAF demand for 2037. The results indicate an annual production of 8.20 Mt of SAF, alongside co-products including bioethanol, renewable diesel, green gasoline and biomethane. Assuming a 3.5% annual growth rate from 2024 levels, this output is consistent with projected Brazilian aviation fuel consumption in 2037, indicating the potential for full fossil jet fuel replacement at national supply points. The system requires 666.19 Mt of sugarcane per year, equivalent to 8.81 million hectares or 87.7% of Brazil’s 2024 production, highlighting feedstock competition challenges. The overall energy efficiency of the integrated biorefinery system, calculated as the ratio between the total energy content of the final fuel products (bioethanol, biomethane, SAF, diesel and gasoline) and the total energy input from sugarcane and external electricity, reaches 54.5%. Total CAPEX is estimated at 261,915 MUSD with hydrogen production representing nearly half of total investment. While optimistic SAF price assumptions yield positive economic indicators, a minimum selling price of 4.029 USD/L is calculated as a more robust benchmark. The system achieves a net reduction of 185.6 MtCO2 per year, aligning with Brazil’s climate commitments.
Keywords:
bagasse, advanced biofuels, mixed-integer linear programming, minimum selling price
Topic:
Biomass Conversion to Intermediate Bioenergy Carriers and Sustainable Biofuels
Subtopic:
Biofuels and Synthetic fuels from biomass and hydrogen
Event:
34th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
5DV.1.1
Pages:
928 - 933
ISBN:
978-88-89407-27-1
Paper DOI:
10.5071/34thEUBCE2026-5DV.1.1
Price:
FREE
