Title:
Impact of Climate Change on the Biomass Potential of Energy Cover Crops by 2050
Author(s):
Dagorn, N., Deudon, O., Richard, C., Tesseron, S., Michel, A., Marsac, S.
Document(s):
Paper
Poster
Abstract:
This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the biomass potential of Energy Cover Crops (ECC) in France by 2050. Using DRIAS-2020 climate projections and crop modeling, we analyzed agroclimatic parameters such as Growing Degree Days (GDD), frost risks between February and March (extreme minimum temperature), rainfall at sowing, and precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-PET) across seven representative sites across France. Results show a general increase in GDD, leading to earlier phenological stages and potentially earlier harvests. In colder regions, this could increase biomass yields, while in already warm areas, shortened growth cycles may reduce yields. Frost risks are expected to decline, particularly after 2050, reducing the potential for damage to biomass production. However, precipitation trends remain uncertain. The use of only three climate models, which tend to overestimate precipitation and underestimate water stress, limits the robustness of the results. These results highlight the need for cautious interpretation due to high uncertainty in both climate and crop models. The study highlights the need to adapt ECC varieties to future climatic conditions and adjust crop sequences to shorter growing cycles in order to optimize the trade-off between ECC and main crops.
Keywords:
biomass, energy crops, climate change, yield, agricultural biogas plant, cover crops
Topic:
Sustainable Resources for Decarbonising the Economy
Subtopic:
Biomass resources and potentials
Event:
33rd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
1CV.2.8
Pages:
165 - 169
ISBN:
978-88-89407-25-7
Paper DOI:
10.5071/33rdEUBCE2025-1CV.2.8
Price:
FREE
