Title:
Scenario Analysis of the Austrian Sawmill by-Product Market Using a Supply and Demand Model
Author(s):
Fuhrmann, M., Dissauer, C., Strasser, C., Schmid, E.
Document(s):
Paper
Slide presentation
Abstract:
In Austria, around 7 million m³ sawmill by-products (SBP) are produced each year and further processed mainly by the paper, panel and pellet industry. Since competition in demand has increased in the last decades, this article aims to provide an analysis of the Austrian SBP market. For this purpose, a simple econometric supply and demand model was estimated based on annual data (2001 – 2020) by using a “two-stage-least-squares” (2SLS) method. Besides the prices, supply is mainly determined by the instrument variable “sawnwood exports”, while demand is mainly explained by SBP input in panel and in pellet production. The model was further used to showcase its application for scenario analysis by calculating a reference and a bioeconomy scenario up to 2050. The reference scenario, assuming a continuation of recent trends, results in growing supply and decreasing demand, caused by rising prices. In contrast, the bioeconomy scenario results in a positive trend for both supply and demand in the long-term. Therefore, a growing importance of SBP for Austrian industries can be expected in a bioeconomy setting. Based on these examples, the estimated model can be seen as a basis for understanding the interrelationships in the SBP market and illustrating possible future developments.
Keywords:
demand, sawdust, wood chips, model, supply, markets
Topic:
Sustainability, Impacts and Policies
Subtopic:
Resource efficient economy
Event:
30th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
2BO.4.2
Pages:
309 - 313
ISBN:
978-88-89407-22-6
Paper DOI:
10.5071/30thEUBCE2022-2BO.4.2
Price:
FREE
