Paper details

Title:

In Silico Quantification of Miscanthus (Miscanthus x Giganteus Greef Et Deu.) Biomass Productivity in Italian Marginal Areas Using Arungro Simulation Model

Author(s):

Cappelli, G.A., Ginaldi, F., Fanchini, D., Ceotto, E.

Document(s):

Abstract:

Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et Deu.) is a high-yielding, perennial, C4 grass representing a cost-effective opportunity to produce carbon-free energy at low cost, particularly in marginal areas, namely land unsuited to row-crop cultivation and therefore prone to abandonment. This paper presents a fine-resolution in silico assessment of Miscanthus productivity in Italian marginal areas, also in the prospect of climate change. The Arungro biophysical model was used as simulation engine. The model was calibrated versus 13 multi-year experimental datasets collected in six Italian sites in the period 1992-2014, in both rainfed and well-irrigated conditions, assuming that nitrogen was not a limiting factor, no weed competition and no pest attacks. The model was linked to a spatially-explicit database, with data on i) current and climate change scenarios, ii) agro-management practices, iii) soil physical and hydrological properties, iv) land marginality and v) crop suitability to environment. Gridded simulations were performed at 500×500 m spatial resolution. Results analysis was centered on marginal areas in the province of Pisa (Central Italy), which was the most represented location in the calibration dataset. At field level, Arungro explained the 73% of the variability of aboveground biomass field measurements across sites, seasons, soils and alternative management (i.e. transplanting/cutting dates, stand density and water management). At province level, mean aboveground biomass estimates tended to slightly decrease in 2030 compared to baseline (-2.6%), although showing large variability across the province, according to the pedo-climatic conditions explored (relative changes in the range -20.9/+45.1%). Likewise, simulated changes in water use efficiency (average increase of +1.2%) are projected to fluctuate between -16.7% and +48.7%, suggesting that the amount of water needed to maintain the current production level under warmer scenarios will largely vary spatially across the province. Although the study needs to be extended to other provinces and diverse crop species, the analysis of preliminary results provides site-specific indications on Miscanthus local suitability to farmers, crop specialists and public entities involved in the agricultural sector.

Keywords:

climate change, yield, dry matter, biophysical models, perennial energy grasses

Topic:

Sustainable Resources for Decarbonising the Economy

Subtopic:

Biomass resources and potentials

Event:

30th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition

Session:

1AO.7.3

Pages:

50 - 58

ISBN:

978-88-89407-22-6

Paper DOI:

10.5071/30thEUBCE2022-1AO.7.3

Price:

FREE