Title:
Sensitivity Analysis on Land Availability for Energy Crops in the EU by 2050
Author(s):
Choi, H.S., Entenmann, S., Grethe, H.
Document(s):
Paper
Poster
Abstract:
Biomass potential is highly dependent on the area of land needed for the cultivation of crops and fodder. There is a debate regarding the current and future area of arable land in the EU that is potentially suitable for energy crop cultivation. To understand feasible land availability in the EU for energy crop cultivation in a systematic way, we conducted a sensitivity analysis on land availability until 2050 in the agricultural sector model ESIM (European Simulation Model) with four factors: crop yield growth, livestock product demand changes, market liberalization, and world market price levels. The simulation results show that the available land area (arable land and grassland) for energy crops in the baseline (max.,min) is 5 (+4.6/-6.8) mil. ha in 2030 and 1.5 (+8.3/-5.1) mil. ha. in 2050 and the released area is unlikely to exceed 10 mil. ha in EU28 compared to the base year without considering fallow land. The effects of market liberalization are the largest on land release in the sensitivity analysis. The bioeconomy strategy should consider policy options to enhance land productivity so that it reduce its land competition with food, fodder and energy biomass. In policy debate of bioeconomy, biomass potential needs to be clearly stated with such relevant policy conditions and environmental constraints.
Keywords:
agriculture, biodiversity, land use, lignocellulose, perennial energy crops, biobased economy
Topic:
Biomass Resources
Subtopic:
Biomass potentials and biomass mobilisation
Event:
24th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
1BV.4.99
Pages:
277 - 282
ISBN:
978-88-89407-165
Paper DOI:
10.5071/24thEUBCE2016-1BV.4.99
Price:
FREE
