Title:
Forecasting the Pellet Boiler Stock in Austria until 2030 and Assessing the Potential to Reduce GHG Emissions and Substitute Fossil Fuels
Author(s):
Karner, K., Schmid, E., Strasser, C., Kristöfel, C., Enigl, M.
Document(s):
Paper
Abstract:
The pellet markets and pellet boiler installations have been rapidly developed in many countries sincea decade. Hence, the objective of this analysis is toforecast potential future developments of pellet boiler installations and to assess the coherent environmental impacts in Austria. First, a regression analysis with historical time series data is conducted considering different heating fuel prices and subsidies. Second, the regression results are used to develop four different forecast scenarios for pellet boiler installations in Austria. Third, the environmental impacts of the forecastsare assessed bydata in the literature and national emission inventories. The results show that heating oil price and pellet price influence pellet boiler installations significantly. Depending on the future price developments, between90,000 and 430,000 pellet boilers are forecasted to be installed in Austria until 2030. The environmental impact assessment reveals large saving potentials in GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumptions, but thehuman toxicity and tropospheric ozone precursor potential would likely increase. The results also indicate that pellets trade will gain on importance and environmental impacts are sensitive on the transportation system, which is currently based on trucks.
Keywords:
regression analysis, wood pellet, environmental impact assessment (EIA), pellet boiler installations
Topic:
Biomass Policies, Markets and Sustainability
Subtopic:
Environmental impacts of bioenergy
Event:
23rd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
Session:
4AV.2.16
Pages:
1521 - 1527
ISBN:
978-88-89407-516
Paper DOI:
10.5071/23rdEUBCE2015-4AV.2.16
Price:
FREE
