Forecasting the Development of German Biogas Plants until 2030
Balussou, D., McKenna, R., Fichtner, W.
The aim of this paper is to forecast the development of German biogas plants for power generation up to the year 2030. Based on a consistent database, the development of electricity production costs from biogas is analysed, as well as the long¬term impact of the incentive system, in particular the development of the subsidies within the German Renewable¬Energies¬Act¬2012. Targets for the installed biogas plants capacities to be built are defined following the objectives of the German Federal Government for renewable electricity. Thus, 4.7 GWel in 2020 and 6.7 GWel in 2030 biogas plant capacities have to be reached. Investment decisions and expansion rates are based on operating results in each year, such that only plants that show a positive operating result will be built according to several assumed capacity expansion rates. The generated forecasts suggest that 5.6 GWel will be installed by 2020 (targets reached) and 6.3 GWel in 2030 (targets not reached). Sensitivity analysis shows the strong influence of a feedstock price as well as the presence of potential heat sinks on further capacity developments. The results should support German stakeholders, as well as policy makers in order to elaborate sustainable strategies for a rational energetic biomass use.
biogas, economics, energy crops, fermentation, bio-power
Biomass Policies, Markets and Sustainability
Biomass strategies and policies
20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition
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